Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?
Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?
Plus
16
Ṁ1486Nov 19
83%
Abigail Spanberger
9%
6%
Winsome Sears
2%
Levar Stoney
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Virginia_gubernatorial_election
Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman, re-resolves if the projection is wrong.
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Over the past year, there is somewhat more interest in Abigail Spanberger rather than Winsome Sears according to Google Trends data localized to this particular state (the 5-year data is much less helpful due to three huge peaks in the Novembers of 2020, 2021, and 2022).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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