Global Average Temperature Oct 2025 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
7
Ṁ2356
Nov 14
0.9%
October 2025 less than 0.995C
0.9%
October 2025 0.995C or more and less than 1.045C
1%
October 2025 1.045C or more and less than 1.095C
1.4%
October 2025 1.095C or more and less than 1.145C
4%
October 2025 1.145C or more and less than 1.195C
39%
October 2025 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C
44%
October 2025 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C
9%
October 2025 1.295C or more

Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

or

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.


Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.

Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.

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1.23-1.28 atm

@yo22 sounds good, except I’ve been low by quite a bit last few months… last time I checked gistemp for September was 1.26 so it should be in that general range…

For climate news, I wonder whether we will continue to get anomalous temps from Antarctica… it’s been in the news twice recently..

The sudden stratospheric warming event over the last month or so…

https://theconversation.com/air-temperatures-over-antarctica-have-soared-35-c-above-average-what-does-this-unusual-event-mean-for-australia-265079

And the paper documenting the recent discovery of possibly common methane seeps (microbial apparently ?) in the coastal Ross sea… paper and article (skimmed it)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63404-3

https://abcnews.go.com/International/researchers-find-methane-leaking-cracks-antarctic-seabed/story?id=126413559

@parhizj 1.21-1.26, forecast is dropping

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