Will a U.S. state secede or declare civil war with the U.S. Federal government after January 2, 2025?
Plus
17
Ṁ1002Jan 4
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
American political division is at what feels like a generational high. In the event of a disputed 2024 election, many states may take steps leading to a second civil war over the course of 2024.
Trades will settle in U.S Federal Reserve notes if still legal tender.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any US state secede before 2050?
26% chance
Will a state in the USA attempt to secede from the union before January 2025?
9% chance
As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.
22% chance
Will at least one state secede from the USA before the year 2100?
41% chance
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100?
59% chance
Will any US state fail to certify the election and submit a slate of electors before Jan/1/2025?
16% chance
Will any US state secede before 2030?
12% chance
Will any US county attempt to secede from the state it belongs to by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2025?
35% chance