Who is right about Imane Khelif's sex (gender)?
Basic
10
Ṁ315
2026
22%
Liberals
52%
Conservatives
26%
Other

Liberals:

  • She's a woman

  • No unfair advantage

Conservatives:

  • Biological male

  • Unfair advantage

I'll try to resolve this as fairly as possible, and am leaving the other option in case neither option is worthy of resolving to yes. There's no deadline just like COVID markets, waiting for definitive evidence (there isn't right now).

Background on what I know about this:

  • Not an expert, just following cause it's a popular culture war issue

  • Pretty sure she's not trans

  • She might be intersex and have some XY chromosomes or something (unsure), I've heard of DSD but don't know what that is in detail and could have some form of male body parts. If this is true and clearly unfair for her to compete in the women's division, this will resolve to Conservative.

  • Or she could just be a normal female (XX) just with high testosterone or some other hormones. In this case it'll likely resolve Liberal.

  • I've heard of Caster Semenya and I'm pretty sure that case would resolve to Conservative, but again I'm not that well versed

  • If some credible boxing authority (not the IBA which is being discredited for Russian ties and didn't have authority over the Olympics) bans her from competing in the women's division that's strong evidence for Conservative

  • If she wins defamation cases that may be evidence for Liberal (assuming the judge isn't clearly biased)

  • I think there's a case where she could have some XY/intersex condition but it doesn't give her an unfair advantage so I may lean towards Liberal, but it could be Other if it's unclear (i.e. marginal or some advantages/disadvantages)

  • Maybe factor in that's she's lost to 9 female boxers in the past?

  • Is this the exact same as Lin Yu-ting?

  • I watched this YouTube video (https://youtu.be/eNSx4sV-jys?si=m7zk0_i-_dhXMNWr) and didn't find it too controversial but wasn't paying that much attention to dig deep into the subject.

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What is your definition of “unfair advantage?”

bought Ṁ10 YES

>I think there's a case where she could have some XY/intersex condition but it doesn't give her an unfair advantage so I may lean towards Liberal, but it could be Other if it's unclear (i.e. marginal or some advantages/disadvantages)

Other is the category for an intersex condition that gives a small but not insurmountable advantage?

She has lost boxing matches to women before. She'd have to be quite the incompetent pro-boxer if she had the full male genetic advantages yet still lost boxing matches to females.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy FYI, this market was originally created so that anyone could add more answer options. I just toggled it so that only you can add more options, but if you'd like to switch that back, feel free to send me (or any other moderator) a message or respond here.

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