Cuomo vote share (including inactive/exhausted ballots) in final round of RCV
15
Ṁ6156Jul 2
99%
>40%
99%
>41%
0.3%
>42%
0.9%
>43%
1.1%
>44%
1%
>45%
1%
>46%
1%
>47%
1%
>48%
1%
>49%
1%
>50%
Inactive/Exhausted ballots are ones that were counted in the first round but not the last since they did not rank the finalists.
e.g. in 2021 Eric Adams had 404,513 out of 942,031 ballots which is 42.94%
https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/1l8sbpq/rankedchoice_voting_exhausted_ballots/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Not including exhausted ballots polymarket has him getting about 40%
https://polymarket.com/event/nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov?tid=1750831663951
combined with this market
https://polymarket.com/event/of-exhausted-ballots-in-nyc-mayor-dem-primary
He's expected around 44*94%. So I'm guessing between 41% and 42%
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