Resolves Yes if there is credible reports of 5 or more firing (or heavy handed push to resignation, including severance) of Jane Street employees affiliated with Effective Altruism (EA forum regular posters, EA meetup regular or occasional attendee), within 2 months, as reported by EA forum or other source recognized as reliable on EA matter by effective altruists.
There must additionally be rumor of the ideological nature of the firing, or absence of another mundane cause of dismissal (e.g. downsizing of the firm, implication of the fired employee in an illicit scheme, ... )
In case of ambiguity, which is likely to happen due to NDA and such, I may temporarily halt trading (temporary market close), discuss in the comment, and reserve the right to resolve N/A. I welcome comments and suggestion regarding the resolution criteria, if formulated well in advance of the resolving event.
1,000
3.00@Anthem I wanted a market that would be basically "Will EA become radioactive" (like communism in McCarthy era) but with objective criteria, so I needed a company that was 1/ not particularly culture-war-y 2/ I knew there was some EA in. Jane street seemed to fit the bill.
@CamillePerrin Jane street also has a pretty unique culture, such that I think it's not a good indicator of broader trends. For one thing, their business model is such that they don't have to worry about moral fads and fasions as much as most companies. They just continue making money on the markets.
@EliTyre it's "steelmanning" the indicator in a way, maybe a bit too much then. What's a good middle-of-the-road indicator company in your view?