Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
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Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:
Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths
Armed insurrection
The January 6th insurrection
Organized terrorism
Things which would not count:
An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"
Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.
Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.
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