Cumulative:

Market for one year later

Taking all the lower bounds, the current probabilities imply an expected value of at least $41,700

@BoltonBailey

10,000 x 0.15 + 20,000 x 0.51 + 50,000 x 0.18 + 100,000 x 0.10 + 200,000 x 0.02 + 500,000 x 0.014 = 41700

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.14, 0.56, 0.15, 0.12, 0.014, 0.006]

now equal to 37900

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.22, 0.48, 0.16, 0.09, 0.011, 0.005]

equal to 33500

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.05, 0.33, 0.38, 0.18, 0.02, 0.018]

equal to 57100

[10000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 200000, 500000] . [0.02, 0.17, 0.44, 0.23, 0.10, 0.04]

equal to 88600

Only ~three months between the date on these markets and:

I have been arbitraging this some.