In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven? | Manifold

In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?

Basic

10

Ṁ694

2100

47%

2020s

30%

2030s

5%

2040s

3%

2050s

3%

2060s

3%

2070s

3%

2080s

3%

2090s

4%

Not by 2100

Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.

Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor

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