Looking at India 2024 - I think this protest tracker is missing 90%+ of the protests of 1k+ people. There is no way India has so few protests.

@MaybeNotDepends Heck maybe 99% of the protests are missing. India has a lot of people and a lot of farmer, religious, ethnic, political, and other protests. I'd expect 1000+ protests/year with 1000+ people.

@MaybeNotDepends I think the data source is bad and the market should be resolved NA.

@MaybeNotDepends Sold my shares (crashed the price, I don't care). I wish there was a good data source for this, but I don't think there is. Close the market, resolve NA.

@MaybeNotDepends if you give me a source or two for India, I’ll ask about the protests too.

Please read through the Carnegie Protest Tracker’s website. They have a methodology that suggests there is more veracity and accountability to how they are verifying the facts on the ground and determining the size of protests than a regular media outlet. This may explain why some protests reported in the media don’t show up in the tracker.

I will share back anything I learn from corresponding with them so that traders can make an informed decision.

In the meantime, please do not post 5 messages in one sitting. 1-2 is enough. This is too much to respond to.

I believe the data source is not stating how many people were at a single protest - but they are compiling them. Is this true?

If so, it isn't measuring "if there is a protest of > 10,000 participants" so much as "if there is a series of protests that summed had > 10,000 participants". The latter is significantly more likely to occur.

The South Korean protests against Yoon are listed as starting in Dec 2024 and going for 4 months. So they occurred in 2025, but the biggest ones were in Dec 2024 I think. I suspect there were protests of 10,000 people in 2025 - but the data source doesn't say (at least on the main page).

@MaybeNotDepends The "peak size" was > 100,000.

Link to the Carnegie Protest Tracker doesn't work. Did they stop doing it?

@MaybeNotDepends works for me

@BlueDragon Ah ha, it might have been offline for a bit.

Did South Korea not have > 10k people protesting the Constitutional Court's ruling / potential ruling?

@MaybeNotDepends https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-yoon-protests-constitutional-court-69106e6a41d6793de0e280460dc3a7a5

@MaybeNotDepends Organizers estimated that approximately 1.1 million people participated in the anti-Yoon rally, while police reported attendance in the tens of thousands.
(ChatGPT4)

@MaybeNotDepends I am not sure why they didn’t include it in the March update. I will write to them and ask.

Since Germany had now logged three separate mass protests over different issues each with more than 10K participants, I figured it’s time to add Germany back in again. Resolves YES only if there is another mass protest with over 10k participants starting in May or thereafter.

April update

Resolved YES:

Greece 🇬🇷

Taiwan 🇹🇼

United States 🇺🇸

No current market:

Germany 🇩🇪

Based on March update:

Resolved YES:

Brazil

France

Hungary

Yemen

No unresolved market (otherwise would have resolved YES):

Nepal

Germany

Philippines

Slovakia

Israel

Surprising that the source doesn't seem to mention the UK summer 2024 far right riots over the southport knife attack, easily the most high profile and destructive protest in the country the past decade

@TheAllMemeingEye I chose them because they have a methodology, but there are gaps I can’t explain. Next time it happens that there’s a protest we expect but don’t see, I’ll write to them and ask.

@BlueDragon thanks 👍

@BlueDragon Surely Phillipines resolves yes, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye good catch! It should have, yes

What year, if any, since 1930 has India not had a protest with > 10k people?

@MaybeNotDepends Unless the resolution source stinks.