Will the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully land on the moon?
➕
Plus
139
Ṁ59k
resolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES

https://www.space.com/india-stacks-chandrayaan-3-moon-mission-rocket-photos

Has to successfully land on the moon.

'success' being defined as it lands, and is still able to send back telemetry. If there is radio silence after the scheduled landing period, its considered a 'failure'

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predictedNO

Congrats to ISRO!

predictedYES

Seems 99% ok to resolve YES... I'll wait another hour or 2
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1694327198394863911

predictedYES

Resolves Yes :D

@Mqrius Was there any telemetry received after the landing?

@lukres Considering they didn't report losing signal, I imagine they maintained the same stream of telemetry they were referring to throughout the entire landing process

predictedYES

@Gen Yeah, I agree with Genzy. I don't think they showed anything specifically on stream, but the reactions from the people indicate that they didn't lose telemetry.

predictedNO

@Mqrius I agree that it was likely successful but no harm in waiting a few hours for actual proof.

predictedYES

@Mqrius Okay I give up. Actually that is better than Manifold mana 😂

predictedNO

They're delaying because it's doomed. No way can India do something like this.

predictedYES

changing end date to 28th, as there is information now saying they may delay landing to 27th if complications

predictedNO

@Blomfilter tse tse. They should just crash it and not postpone it.

predictedYES

@gigab0nus well, more time in space for a random space-debris rock to hit it, so it may benefit NO bettors... ;)

As much as I hope they do succeed, the moon is a very hard place to successfully land. I’m betting no based on overall global track record

predictedNO

@Blomfilter The music is ominously fitting as a dirge for a crashed lander.

Detailed breakdown of why Chandrayaan 2 failed and some of the software fixes + hardware improvements that are being implemented on Chandrayaan 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ngVl6iO94c

The fact that they got so close the first time, are now most of the way through their second attempt, and have really gone all-out to overbuild Chandrayaan 3 for the final landing phase, makes me feel pretty confident that they will pull it off.

@JacksonWagner I wouldn’t call this close. The lander started failing at the beginning of the descent and the corrections made things worse. In terms of difficulty, I’m not even sure the lander made it past the half-way point.

What are people updating on? I can't see any negative news

predictedYES
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules