Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?

Plus

Ṁ1240

2029

39%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if some video-game that makes use of LLM dialogue gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games. Must be top 10 at any time before market close (EOY 2028).

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bought Ṁ100 NO

None of the current top 10 on that list were released in the last six years (the most recent is Red Dead Redemption 2 from 2018). I might bet against any new game making the top 10 by EOY 2028, let alone one with a specific speculative feature.

@Multicore good idea

a possible/obvious contender is GTA VI

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 50% order1y

Does this mean "the player gets live feedback from an LLM while running the game", or would it resolve YES if the game devs used an LLM to make some/all of the scripted dialog?

bought Ṁ50 NO1y

@Jwags the former, not the latter

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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