Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of October 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
1,000
3.00
That sounds like a fair and clear way to determine the resolution! Using the LLM Arena leaderboard as the benchmark keeps it transparent and data-driven. It’ll be interesting to see which company holds the top Arena Score by the end of October google baseball — the competition has been getting really close lately.