Which Benchmarks will OpenAI show results from GPT-5 on, when it is announced?

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Ṁ9104

2026

99%

SimpleQA

99%

HumanEval

99%

MMLU

99%

GPQA

99%

SWE-Bench

99%

ARC-AGI-2

16%

MATH

14%

Big-Bench-Hard

12%

DROP

12%

MGSM

GSM8K

Some flexibility on variations of specific benchmarks. eg SWE-Bench-Hard would resolve SWE-Bench YES.

Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The benchmarks must be those that GPT-5 is benchmarked against by OpenAI.

Must be on roughly the same day / during / around the time of the announcement. If there are several announcements over multiple days, all those times are acceptable for the purpose of this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

you mean benchmarked by OpenAI?

@JoshYou yeah

Surely ARC !?

https://arcprize.org/

@bbb I can't add options, I might create a duplicate where i can in a bit.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@bbb Idk if i was actually able to change the settings back then but since then ive learned how to do it, so added arc agi 2

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