On which continent will the next Pope be born?
On which continent will the next Pope be born?
Plus
91
Ṁ54592032
59%
Europe
20%
Asia
14%
Africa
6%
North America
0.5%
South America
0.2%
Australia
0%
Antarctica
The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from South America and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere. In which continent will the pope after pope Francis be born?
Respectfully modified from @strutheo's excellent market:
Which country will the next Pope following Pope Francis be from?
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What does this resolve to if he is an islander? Specifically, what continent resolves if it is Luis Tagle? N/A!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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