Neuralink: How many years between medical and non-medical applications with widespread availability? | Manifold

Neuralink: How many years between medical and non-medical applications with widespread availability?

Basic

16

Ṁ383

2035

35%

Medical application is permanently discontinued before widespread availability

9%

After widespread availability of Medical application, non-medical application is discontinued

4%

0

5%

1

6%

2

7%

3

6%

4

5%

5

4%

6

4%

7

4%

8

3%

9

10%

10+

Resolves to a linear interpolation of the nearest years, if both occur. If either application is discontinued, or Neuralink closes down or similar, the appropriate special option resolves YES.

Medical application with widespread availability: A Neuralink device that is available to the average person dealing with ALS, or quadreplegia, or some other major disability, in some major country.

Non-medical application with widespread availability: A Neuralink device that is available to the average person of some major country, regardless of their health.

If the release date for medical and non-medical applications is ambiguous, it may resolve to the judgement of a group of mods, or similar.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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Related questions

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed?

Will Neuralink be used for reparative therapy before the end of 2035?

When will be the first year that 10,000 people receive Neuralink brain implants?

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Do implanted brain-computer interfaces get put in anyone for reasons other than a medical treatment by 2026?

Will there be more than 200 people with a neuralink by August 2027?

When will Neuralink implant the first chip to cure blindness in a person?

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