AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?
43
Ṁ13k
2027
45%
chance

RSG = Random Seed Glitchless

Must be Java version
CAN:

Can use scaffolds or similar.

CAN'T:

Cannot slow down game time or stuff like that.

Can't get human help.

Can't reverse engineer (by running scripts) what seed it is in from world features to know where structures will be before seeing them (eg blind travelling to the stronghold)

Traders may want to look at the official rulebook for Minecraft RSG:

https://www.minecraftspeedrunning.com/public-resources/rules

Important: For the purpose of this market, the run must generally follow the Minecraft RSG rules insofar as the rules are not related at all to the fact that the participant is human. For example:

  • If the rulebook says you can't write stuff down, and instead need to keep things to memory, but the AI keeps things to memory by writing information into its memory bank, that is allowed.

  • If the rulebook says snapshots can't be used to set Minecraft RSG runs, the AI must not use snapshots to resolve this market positively, as this rule is not related to the fact that it is an AI.

However, uninvolved persons may determine, at time of resolution, whether a rule ought to be allowed or ignored on a case-by-case basis, in case of ambiguity.

See also:

/Bayesian/ai-beats-minecraft-rsg-in-under-10

  • Update 2025-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Allowed tools/info

    • AI may use Ninjabrain.

    • Mods that expose in-game information directly to the AI are allowed, such as blocks/entities in the current FOV and data equivalent to the F3 screen.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

What is allowable information to give to the AI? Does it have access to the game state, or is it just a video stream?

@AshDorsey Also are snapshots allowed?

@AshDorsey And what counts as beating Minecraft, seeing the credits?

And what counts as beating Minecraft, seeing the credits?

whatever the normal minecraft RSG settings are for what counts as beating minecraft

Also are snapshots allowed?

Hmm good question

@Bayesian "The run is considered completed once the credits sequence of the game begin after

entering the exit end portal."

@AshDorsey From the rulebook:

What is allowable information to give to the AI? Does it have access to the game state, or is it just a video stream?

It's definitely not just video streams, as audio streams are definitely also allowed. But I don't want to definitely say there isn't more than those two, because there may be typical or required other informations that it is determined fair for AI to receive but that I can't think of right now. If this ambiguity isn't ok with you, feel free not to bet, but i wouldn't want to settle this outright now

@Bayesian Humans are allowed to use Ninjabrain, which interacts with the clipboard to be able to calculate a position for the stronghold.

I do wonder what your opinion is regarding mods that give the AI the blocks/entities visible in the FOV or information available in the F3 screen. I assume you would allow mods to allow the AI to directly turn to specific angles/plan a series of moves. I don't know if you would allow turn to entity + swing commands, because a lot of the reason this wouldn't succeed is the sheer slowness/latency of AI.

@AshDorsey humans having access to ninjabrain is a sufficient condition for the AI having access to it. I don't see an issue with mods that provide block in-view block information or similar.
Ig i don't think it's the case that AI will necessarily be slow / have high latency. we'll have competent models that run on the order of 3000 tokens per second which is just much much faster than humans. there are issues involved with that ofc but yeah I wouldn't necessarily assume they will stay slow

@Bayesian E.g. for Kimi K2, the lowest latency is 0.23 s according to OpenRouter, which is quite slow relative to real-time, and it doesn't have absurd throughput either. Although, if something does beat this relatively soon, it will most likely be a combination of a lot of different models.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@jim bet his $1000 to my $100 that this market will resolve YES.

If this market resolves YES, I will pay him $100

If this market resolves NO, @jim will pay me $1000

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@jim Interested in betting more? I would also accept such a bet.

@IsaacKing edit: given that this market is so low, I'll just offer 50:50. Up to $1000, first come first served, only people I trust

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