Supreme Court to require return of wrongly imprisoned Venezuelan migrant Abrego Garcia?

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2026

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44%

Supreme Court upholds lower courts and requires the return of Abrego Garcia

17%

Supreme Court overturns decision requiring the return of Abrego Garcia

39%

Any sort of punt or technicality that does not largely resolve the issue

Chief Justice Roberts has issued an administrative stay after a district court and an appeals court effectively required that the Trump administration act to return Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was deported and forced into an El Salvadorean prison, by 11:59 p.m. on Monday. This market will resolve based on the next decision that the Court makes regarding this case. In the case that the Court does not convincingly act in one way or the other, the market will resolve to "Any sort of punt or technicality that does not largely resolve the issue". In the case that the Court sends the issue back down to a lower court but seems to side with one side over the other or other edge cases, I reserve the right to decide how the market resolves based on the spirit of the question. As there is a potential element of subjectivity in this market, I will not bet.

Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on the 'punt' resolution:
- If the case is remanded to another venue and remains unresolved, taking longer to reach a decision, it will be considered a punt outcome.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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As a clarification, I would consider something like what happened with the other Venezuelan migrants case, where the case is left unresolved to go to a different venue that will presumably take longer to rule again to fall under the "punt" answer.

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