For the purposes of this question a low carbon vehicle can be a plugin hybrid, a purely electric vehicle, a hydrogen powered vehicle, or any other that doesn't directly generate significant amounts of carbon emissions. The average vehicle generates 300-400 g CO2 per mile driven so any vehicle generating less than 40g CO2 per mile driven should qualify (with the caveat that combustion-engine vehicles running on gasoline that aren't plugin hybrids will never qualify).
Passenger vehicles as defined by BTS or closest available https://www.bts.gov/content/new-and-used-passenger-car-sales-and-leases-thousands-vehicles
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The >50% threshold for low carbon vehicle sales must represent an enduring shift.
The market may resolve YES based on data from a single month or quarter if it clearly indicates an enduring trend.
If the trend is unclear from earlier data, the creator will wait until the long-term trend is clear, even past the market's close date if necessary.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the >50% threshold is met in December 2029, but its nature as an enduring trend is initially unclear:
The creator will wait to resolve (even past market's close date).
Resolution will then be based on whether evidence confirms the trend extended beyond December 2029 if necessary.
1,000
3.00@GaryGrenda No, it should be an enduring shift. If it's clearly an enduring trend I could resolve after the first month or quarter, but if it's unclear I will longer until the long-term trend is clear.
@GaryGrenda However, if the milestone is reached the last month before 2030, i.e., December 2029, but it's not yet clear whether the trend will continue, I will wait to resolve and resolve based on whether that trend lasts, waiting beyond December 2029 to see what happens. The market itself will not extend.