Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? | Manifold

Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

Basic

4

Ṁ100

2500

8%

Another pope uses the papal name Peter

33%

A female pope is elected

18%

The papacy is abolished (see description)

41%

None of the above happens by 2500

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

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How would this market define who the real pope is if a major schism occurs? (Which is far far more likely than a female pope of an unambiguous sucseor to today's catholic church)

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