What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
46
Ṁ21k
Jan 30
92%
Still in Saffron City at 75,000 steps.
90%
Stands next to the Card Key again (after step 73,300)
88%
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
84%
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni
63%
Defeats Koga
57%
Defeats Sabrina
42%
Still in Saffron City at 100,000 steps
33%
Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone
32%
Visits Safari Zone before Koga's gym
32%
Stores an item in the PC
24%
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
24%
Defeats Blaine
22%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
19%
Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos
17%
Leaves Saffron City without the card key
16%
Interacts with the Key Card without picking it up
15%
Gets a bicycle
14%
Defeats the champion
8%
Finds the Card Key before 75,000 steps
3%
Gets Eevee

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#Gaming
#Claude
#Pokemon
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Anyone have a timestamp for his latest visits to the actual card key? I see there's one since step 66k that I'm not aware of.

Which item did he pick up, and when?

@AhronMaline He picked up a Rare Candy at step 71,579.

How do liquidity subsidies work with a market like this? Is liquidity being constantly removed as answers are added and resolved or is it just constantly becoming more liquid?

@Anthem Same with this.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Anthem This should resolve no.

Third visit to the card key at 46,444: https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon/clip/HeartlessSplendidUdonANELE-oxM9MRLknR9A_esm

@Anthem What's the alternative?

@JoshSnider It could, for example, end because Claude finishes the game, or because the dev decided to update the harness.

sold Ṁ1 NO

Resolves YES.

@JoshSnider

Still in Saffron at 35k can resolve YES

Silph Co completion time market: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/when-will-claudeplayspokemon-defeat?r=bW9vYnVubnk

"Still in Celadon at 30,000" can resolve NO

lmao

@moobunny oh no he went back to celadon after getting the flute 😭

bought Ṁ10 YES

@moobunny I don’t think it makes sense to resolve this NO if the game is reset before 30k. I think it should resolve N/A.

@moobunny This should resolve yes.

reposted

Good market!

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