When will Trump abolish U.S. expat taxes on overseas income?
7
Ṁ616
2029
7%
2024
7%
2025
11%
2026
13%
2027
13%
2028
49%
Other

This market resolves to the first tax year in which American citizens who are considered tax residents outside the United States (‘expats’) will owe no U.S. taxes on income earned overseas.

Specifically, this means that in the given tax year:

• Foreign labor income earned while physically outside the U.S. will be completely exempt from U.S. taxation.

• Americans abroad may still be required to file tax returns, report income, or pay U.S. taxes on domestic-sourced activities (e.g., sales of U.S. property, domestic investments, U.S.-based business activities).

• The exemption must apply broadly to American citizens who qualify as tax residents abroad, not merely specific exemptions such as the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (FEIE), Foreign Tax Credit, or treaty-based exceptions.

• The exemption must be enacted into law or confirmed by official IRS guidance or regulation.

The market will resolve based on the first applicable tax year explicitly defined by legislation or authoritative IRS guidance.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

@Ansel Can you please resolve?

@adssx doesn’t close until 2029

@Ansel OK thanks, I thought it was possible to resolve some earlier.

BTW I created that one https://manifold.markets/adssx/us-ends-citizenshipbased-taxation-b I only saw yours after so kind of duplicate...

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?
24% chance. The United States is one of the few countries with citizenship-based taxation (CBT, also called "expat tax"). Under CBT, American citizens abroad still owe U.S. income and capital-gains tax on worldwide earnings. In December 2024, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) introduced H.R. 10468 — the Residence-Based Taxation for Americans Abroad Act, which would let U.S. citizens living overseas elect to be taxed only on U.S.-source income. As of late 2025, the bill has not advanced. This market will resolve YES if, by December 31st, 2030, a U.S. federal law or regulation takes effect that substantively ends citizenship-based income and capital-gains taxation for Americans abroad, meaning at least one of the following applies: 1. Residence-based taxation is enacted (e.g., H.R. 10468 or successor) so that Americans abroad are taxed only on U.S.-source income; or 2. A reform (treaty-based or statutory) exempts at least 70 % of U.S. citizens living abroad from U.S. income and capital-gains tax on foreign-source income (for example, limited to residents of countries with U.S. tax treaties or limited to OECD countries); or 3. Treasury/IRS implements rules that eliminate CBT in practice, e.g. an automatic exclusion or election that makes foreign-source income non-taxable. In case of one of the above, the market will resolve YES even if an exit tax is kept in place as long as CBT is ineffective after paying this exit tax. The market will also resolve YES even if reporting requirements are kept in place. The market will resolve NO if, by the resolution date, U.S. citizens abroad remain generally liable for U.S. income or capital-gains tax on foreign-source income, even if compliance is eased, exemptions widened or rates lowered. Minor procedural or administrative tweaks (e.g., higher Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, new credits) do not count. Estate, inheritance, and gift taxes are explicitly excluded from this market. Only income and capital-gains taxation are relevant. Resolution sources: U.S. federal legislation, Treasury/IRS guidance, or credible reporting from major outlets or Big 4 tax firms.
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