Resolves YES as soon as @derikk has a girlfriend before 2024. Resolves NO on January 1, 2025 otherwise.
Whether @derikk has a girlfriend should be pretty clear-cut in most cases; in controversial cases I'll resolve according to whether @derikk and the potential girlfriend consider themselves to be in the relationship.
Disclaimer: I will be betting on this market.
1,000
3.00
@Bayesian If I were just hedging risk I would buy no all at once and not every week or so. I am just buying to reflect natural time decay.
Context:
I’m a 24 y.o. straight monogamous male
My last relationship (with the 2nd person I’ve dated) ended in August
I moved to the SF Bay Area 2 months ago; since then I’ve been on 2 dates with someone through an app (it didn’t work out). I am semi-active on a few dating apps but don’t match frequently.
I go to social events fairly frequently but they usually have an unfavorable gender ratio
To provide incentive and internalize externalities, I have a $100 bounty that I will split amongst the person/people/organizations that are responsible for me meeting my next girlfriend
@derikk Some general questions:
What is the size, gender balance, and relationship success rate of your friendship group?
What are your political views e.g. in terms of economics, government, and progressivism (particularly gender equality)?
What are your free-time hobbies, and what topics do you enjoy chatting about, both for small talk and deep discussions?
Do you have any neurodivergence?
Do you find it difficult to enjoy the company of, compassionately care about, and trust people you meet?
Do any you have a date-me-doc? e.g. https://dateme.directory/
These questions vastly affect the odds in my opinion
Good luck :)
I'd say I have about five close friends and a larger number who I enjoy the company of but don't talk with as often. Many of those people live outside the Bay, though. None of my female friends are ones who I am interested in dating. I'd estimate conservatively that a third of my friends are in relationships at any given time.
I tend to agree politically with Jared Polis, Noah Smith, Nate Silver, and Wayne Burkett. I'd describe myself as a pragmatic liberal (not a leftist). I believe women should have the same rights and opportunities as men, though I do not believe they are inherently the same.
I enjoy playing piano, going on hikes/bikes, solving puzzle-hunt style puzzles, and reading Wikipedia. I'm not a believer in small talk—there are much better questions you can ask someone even if you're meeting for the first time. For deep discussions I enjoy discussing policy/law/economics, science, and moral philosophy.
No.
No. Although I have a high standard for how much I have to enjoy the company of a potential partner, to the point where that's one of the biggest filters.
No; I am unconvinced that dating docs are useful for most men.
Some more general information and updates:
I haven't used dating apps for the past several months due to a low success rate. I have met a couple of people IRL who seem interesting but have struggled somewhat in making arrangements to see them later one-on-one. However, I think meeting the sort of people I'd like to date, especially in repeated, relatively unstructured encounters, is the bottleneck currently.
I am planning to move to the Boston area later this month. I think Boston/Cambridge have a high concentration of the people I would like to date, and also a better gender ratio than the Bay.
All of my pants are chinos.
@derikk Overall, it seems most of the factors are in your favour, though having very high standards and stopping use of dating apps could be very strong bottlenecks, and there's only a few months left, so I tentatively estimate a moderate probability of 20-30%
No; I am unconvinced that dating docs are useful for most men
Yeah this was primarily so we could find out more detailed info about you than it being likely to be a game changer in its own right, though for the record which subset of men do you think they're useful for?
Holy fuck I gotta liquidate some positions, please hold
@derikk how many girlfriend have you already had this year? I presume it's a lot. Like you probably have 5 right now and this market is just if you get another one?
Holy fuck I gotta liquidate some positions
Fuck yeah liquidate 💦 your positions all over me daddy 🥵 /s