The popularity poll came out today it sucked for him.

The people are starting to protest, it's the 60s all over again and for the exact same rights.

The judicial system is fighting back.

The pressure of being the president is astronomical, his diet sucks.

Doesn't look good.

This seems quite likely to me: constitutional eligibility means he probably has broad support?

@AndrewG On that subject, does your definition of "win" here only count if it's "fair"?

The tough questions:

How many Electoral College votes being deemed invalid would it take to sway you into thinking he didn't win?

How many countys' / citizens' votes being declared invalid would it take? What if only certain groups of people are allowed to vote?

Would the market resolve when the election is called? Or after the dust has settled and when the inauguration ceremony is completed?

Do you want to hold shares as judge of this market at the risk of these corner cases happening?

@AndrewG If he becomes constitutionally eligible for a third term, it's more likely a result of authoritarian takeover than a massive increase in popular support, and if that's the case, he'll "win" the election by a wide margin.

could also have a market for if he doesn't become constitutionally eligible but runs anyway