When will the US have the first female President?

Basic

Ṁ4028

2032

10%

Before the end of 2024

33%

Before the end of 2025

48%

Before the end of 2026

48%

Before the end of 2027

48%

Before the end of 2028

46%

Before the end of 2029

68%

Before the end of 2030

68%

Before the end of 2031

68%

Before the end of 2032

79%

Before the end of 2036

84%

Before the end of 2040

91%

Before the end of 2044

91%

Before the end of 2048

91%

Before the end of 2052

55%

Before Joe Biden pass away

59%

Before Donald Trump pass away

58%

Before human land on mars

35%

Before human set foot on moon again

98.3%

Before the U.S. government collapses

99.7%

Before the U.S. has the second female president

Resolves Yes if a female president was elected or a female vice president became president due to the current president unable to perform his duty.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#First Female POTUS

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bought Ṁ15 YES

@AmmonLam This was at 36% but the description says “Resolves Yes if a female president was elected”. 36 is somewhat in between the chance of Kamala replacing Biden by EOY (<10%) and being elected this year and sworn in next year (~50%). I bet it up, but clarification would be helpful.

bought Ṁ350 YES

If US started having duo president system, and two female president was elected at the same time, this will resolve No

@AmmonLam LOL

@AmmonLam Oh no, dual presidents is happening this year

bought Ṁ30 NO

Elected or sworn in?

@redeagle Either one since it isnt specified

@Bayesian The description says "elected" but that always happens on a separate year than the swearing in and actually becoming president. Wondering for the year specified if we are counting elected without having been sworn in yet.

The formal tabulation doesn't happen until January, no?

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