When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]

Plus

119

Ṁ53k

Dec 31

0.6%

Before the end of Aug 2024

0.3%

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

1.5%

Before the end of Nov 2024

20%

Before the end of Dec 2024

63%

Before the end of Jun 2025

64%

Before the end of Dec 2025

76%

Before the end of Jun 2026

91%

Before the end of Dec 2026

75%

Cease fire will happen when Benjamin Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister of Israel

when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 40000

1.7%

when cease fire happens, Casualties count of the Israel–Hamas war will be below 50000

Resolve if major news outlet reported that Gaza has a cease fire on that month
using Eastern European Time (the time zone of Gaza)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Israel

#🇮🇱 Israel

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

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bought Ṁ54 NO

@AmmonLam Resolves NO

@AmmonLam Aug and Sep can resolve NO

@AmmonLam This can resolve to NO

@AmmonLam Haniyeh has been assassinated so this should resolve to NO

@mods june and july can resolve NO

bought Ṁ25 NO

Presumably June and July should resolve to No

bought Ṁ187 NO

This can resolve no

bought Ṁ493 NO

resolves no

bought Ṁ293 NO

@AmmonLam It's over 36000 killed now just for the Palestinian side, so this can resolve NO.

Is this just killed or does it count killed and injured?

bought Ṁ1,366 NO

"Before the end of Apr 2024" resolves NO @AmmonLam

@AmmonLam bump

What kind of ceasefire are we talking about here? Biden has just called for a unilateral Israeli ceasefire - does that count?

@BrunoParga has to be bilateral ceasefire

@AmmonLam has to last how long before Hamas/Fatah/Hizbullah/Iran/Houthis/Iraq goes all October 7 on Israel again?

@BrunoParga it should be 7 days IMO like it is on some other markets

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