This question excludes cryonics.
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
1,000
3.00https://apnews.com/article/life-expectancy-edd52c723e478c08ec194bfbd18bf6b9
NEW YORK (AP) — Humanity is hitting the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study.
Advances in medical technology and genetic research — not to mention larger numbers of people making it to age 100 — are not translating into marked jumps in lifespan overall, according to researchers who found shrinking longevity increases in countries with the longest-living populations.
“We have to recognize there’s a limit” and perhaps reassess assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they’ll need to live out their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher who was lead author of the study published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.
Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher not involved in the study, called it “a valuable addition to the mortality literature.”
“We are reaching a plateau” in life expectancy, he agreed. It’s always possible some breakthrough could push survival to greater heights, “but we don’t have that now,” Hayward said.
@Nikola Not entirely correct, it is P(AGI is possible for humanity to create) Û P(survive AGI) Û P(AGI doesn't somehow prevent research even if it keeps humans alive) Û P(Aging cured within given timeframe)
Now I happen to believe that aging will be sufficiently cured to allow L.E.V. with high certainty this century,
assuming that AGI does not happen,
AND
that Aligned AGI will cause aging to be cured much faster
but you must account for all of these additional assumptions baked into your presumed outcomes.