When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
Basic
9
Ṁ917
2028
73%
>2028
3%
2028
1.6%
Q1 2026
1.6%
Q3 2027
1.6%
Q4 2027
1.6%
Q2 2027
1.6%
Q1 2027
1.6%
Q4 2026
1.6%
Q3 2026
1.6%
Q2 2026
1.2%
July 2025
1.2%
August 2025
1.2%
September 2025
1.2%
October 2025
1.2%
November 2025
1.2%
Other
1%
May 2025
1%
June 2025

This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively. Resolution criteria:

Qualifies as aggressive use:

  • Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation

  • Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators

  • Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders

  • Attempted nuclear attacks that are intercepted by defense systems

Does NOT qualify:

  • Nuclear testing

  • Weapons of mass destruction that do not primarily depend on fission or fusion (e.g. conventional explosives that scatter radioactive materials around their target)

  • Peaceful nuclear uses (mining, asteroid deflection, etc.)

  • Accidents contained within a nation's own borders

Sources for verification:

  • Any two large news agencies comparable to AP, Reuters, Al-Jazeera.

The AI assistant also recommended:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Okay, anybody know how to resolve one individual question as no?

opened a Ṁ300 NO at 1.0% order

This isn't currently possible.

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