Will successful cryonic reanimation of a mammal be performed before 2025?
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The market is said to close in 2026 while the title states "before 2025", that's a year-long discrepancy.

Deciding on both the duration of time and temperature required for you to resolve "yes" might be good.

I'd lean towards <-100 °C and >1y to consider it cryonic reanimation - but that feels like a bar that's extremely unlikely to be passed by 2025.

predictedNO

@argentine I think 1y is unreasonable, they won't wait a year to see if it worked.

@argentine <-100C is fine. >1y isn't. Maybe >1d.

Hamsters have already been revived from cold in the 1950s. https://www.damninteresting.com/reanimated-rodents-and-the-meaning-of-life/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lovelock

Why isn't this resolved to "yes" already?

@Alana Will resolve this market to Yes if no objections.

predictedYES

@Alana I think that's the correct thing to do.

I just wish I'd bought more YES before making this comment. I didn't know you'd actually do that instead of replying "no I mean large mammals" or something.

@Alana Q asked on Discord: was it cold enough to be "cryonic"?

Cryonics is the low-temperature freezing (usually at −196 °C or −320.8 °F or 77.1 K) and storage of human remains, with the speculative hope that resurrection may be possible in the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryonics

he temperatures involved never went further than a few degrees below the freezing point of water and only for an hour or so at a time; although in some cases more than 80% of the water in the skin and 60% of the water in the brain had changed to ice, the animals were never 100% frozen.

https://www.damninteresting.com/reanimated-rodents-and-the-meaning-of-life/

Being partially frozen for a few minutes is not cryonics.

@IsaacKing This is a compelling objection. I will not resolve to YES at the moment unless I hear a more compelling argument for doing so.

@Alana I think in order to count as cryonics, the state the animal is in needs to be indefinitely sustainable. e.g. "the experiment only had them frozen for 2 days, but we expect it would have worked just as well after 2 years".

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