I'm updating the market's title and description to make it clearer and avoid misunderstandings and also to avoid it trivially evaluating to true due to an inevitable accident of statistics.

By my count there have been two so far this year:

July 28th - Wesley LePatner: CEO Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Conservatively worth 3 billion dollars. (10x fees)

June 6th - Nicholas Manning: CEO, West valley medical center, conservatively valued at $500M. (1.5M / bed)

@DavidFWatson The market was initiated in August 11th.

@AlS yes, sorry, to be clear I was bringing up as part of thinking about that base rate

@DavidFWatson given two otherwise qualifying events this year, the chance of a third should be relatively high.

how will they calculate valuation?

@tehsnake Yahoo Finance for publicly traded companies. BizEx Business Valuation Tool for private companies.

"This market will evaluate to true" ???

@creator i think you mean resolve to yes but idk

how are we defining the term CEO? I feel like it would be silly to consider very small tech startup “self-identify ceos.” is there some income requirement that determines this?

@HunterHoinkes Founders/Owners of small companies won't qualify as CEOs. The company must have a minimum valuation of 5 mil USD.

@AlS I expect many small tech startups are worth more than 5 million.

Is any murder of a ceo sufficient, or does it have to have the kind of motives that generally go with the term "assassination"?Like, i could be murdered, but i don't have the kind of position to have my murder be called an assassination, but a ceo could also be murdered for any of the reasons anyone else might be.

@digory Any intentional killing (other than execution as the result of a death penalty sentence issued by a lawful court).

@AlS Is a court conviction required to decide something as murder, or is any public reporting sufficient?

(Also I just want to flag that the clarification here is not what I assumed from the word “assassinated”, and it would have been good to maybe just use the word “murdered” or at least put that clarification in at the beginning before the question was asked)

@eapache agreed, this seems quite different, I think assassination requires some kind of political motivation or contract killing

@eapache

assassinate(v.)

1610s, from past participle stem of Medieval Latin assassinare (see assassin). "Assassinate means to kill wrongfully by surprise, suddenly, or by secret assault" [Century Dictionary]. Of reputations, characters, etc., from 1620s. Related: Assassinated; assassinating. Cockeram's "Dictionarie" (1623) has assassinous "murderous."
https://www.etymonline.com/word/assassinate

Motivation does not matter. The semantic discussion you're trying to raise is meaningless and baseless. Besides, media are reporting the assassination of the Blackstone CEO as a though it were a random murder, rather than a politically motivated killing (a false angle that's easily dismissed when you research the case in depth and through a critical lens). There's clearly pressure to keep things under blankets to prevent further copycat killings.

And yes, of course what matters is the fundamental fact that a CEO was murdered, not whether or not a lengthy legal process confirmed that was the case.

@AlS that is a very outdated definition, today assassination means killing a powerful person in relation to their use of their power.

@AlS OK, that’s fine.

Just on base rates (number of CEOs, US murder rate) I expect this to be rather trivially true. Multiple CEOs are murdered per month in the US on average so I’m not sure this is a very interesting market anymore. But not all of those murders make it into the news in a way that’s obviously tied to the fact the victim was a CEO, so it might be harder to find proof, and I don’t feel like betting on whether somebody will bother digging up the appropriate local news article.