If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead.
Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.
Feel free to add answers! I will interpret a bare number like "250" as "250 or more".
Mon 15 July update:
The original title mentioned Biden with an asterisk and the original description stated: "If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead." When I initially created this market, the possibility of Biden dropping out was seen as unlikely, so the title seemed appropriate. However, I now realize that an asterisk in the title might be too subtle of a hint to check the description, so I included the information directly in the title.
1,000
3.00The description says: "If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead." Should I change the title? When I initially created this market, the possibility of Biden dropping out was seen as unlikely, so the title seemed appropriate, but now I fear the asterisk in the title (Biden*) is too subtle of a hint to check the description.
Let me know if you incur any losses (including fees), and I can compensate you, if you want.
The description says: "If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead." Should I change the title? When I initially created this market, the possibility of Biden dropping out was seen as unlikely, so the title seemed appropriate, but now I fear the asterisk in the title (Biden*) is too subtle of a hint to check the description.
Let me know if you incur any losses (including fees), and I can compensate you, if you want.
does this count pledged electoral votes or actual electoral college votes? (i.e., how are faithless electors counted?)
@pyrylium Thanks for the heads-up! I've updated the description. It's actual Electoral College votes, so unfaithful electors could affect the outcome.