Will OpenAI's next-generation model score 65% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Plus
13
Ṁ803resolved Sep 16
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve to YES if OpenAI's next generation language model scores 65% or higher on the GPQA benchmark(extended set).
If OpenAI's existing model gets 65% or higher by post-training enhancements, that also counts.
There's room for improvement via prompt engineering after the release, but I don't know how long I should wait, so I will resolve this question as soon as OpenAI releases their next model.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) solve more than 2 of the first 5 new Project Euler problems?
45% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
66% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
81% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will there be a model that has a 75% win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4 as of January 1st, 2025?
62% chance
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) achieve over 50% resolution rate on the SWE-bench benchmark?
75% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
43% chance