This market will resolve to "Yes" if the model weights for Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus are publicly available by December 31, 2030. "Publicly available" means that the complete model weights are accessible to the general public without significant restrictions, such as
- Through an official release by Anthropic
- A public torrent of a leak of the weights

A "significant restriction" would be something like "X anon on Discord has a copy of the weights but is only providing them to close friends" or "You must go through XYZ 2-month approval process by Anthropic to receive access"

Additional constraints:
- It must be available for at least 7 days, but the market tracks the start date. So if it's available for 7 days starting December 30th, this will resolve YES. But if it was only ever available for 1 hour on Jan 12th 2027, and nobody made a known public reupload, the market would resolve NO
- If the model architecture is particularly unconventional, associated inference code must be available, such that the knowledge of how to run the model isn't gate-kept