This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources.
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3.00@10thOfficial As the market creator what's your stance on resolving in regards to ambiguity to "variant of", "based on", etc?
@Paradoxicorn what does the paywalled article say? In all other articles of says that it's a new IMBM. Is it really a modified RS-26?
@Paradoxicorn US gov. appear to be leaning towards the missile being the RS-26,
"Sabrina Singh, the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, described the Oreshnik as a variant of Russia’s RS-26 ballistic missile. The RS-26 is a 40-ton, solid-fueled missile that straddles two treaty categories." (Forbes: The Mysterious Ballistic Missile Russia Fired At Ukraine Was Created By Sneaky Treaty-Dodgers)
but "variant of RS-26" is kind of ambitious. It could mean a literal variant of the RS-26, or it could be a new system based on it.
At this point there's literally no media consensus as to what kind of weapon it is. It could be an RS-26, or a new version of the Yars-M, Iskander; or it could be a completely new system.
Also, government statements points towards the system not being the RS-26 (BBC: What we know about Russia's Oreshnik missile):
"Hours after the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a TV address, said that Russia had launched a "new conventional intermediate-range" missile with the codename Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian."
"Ukrainian military intelligence maintains that the missile is a new type of ICBM known as Kedr (cedar)."
According to Putin today's strike was with a new IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), not an ICBM https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt?post=asset:47fd8644-8538-475d-a3cc-6f5714f0d191
@Paradoxicorn wow, you went way in on YES. Anything I should read or consider to appreciate the risk more?
@Enlil there are now videos circulating at X showing an attack, that looks like involving MaRV payload.
@Paradoxicorn I cannot gauge if this would be a sign that Russia is out of equipment or just really committed. Using an ICBM on a neighboring country seems like taking a cruise ship on a harbor tour.
According to Wikipedia that "is a Russian solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a thermonuclearMIRV or MaRV payload"
Seems pretty massive of a thing to use. Going full Civ Gandhi