Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each men's tennis player who reaches the semifinals (Top 4) of the 2025 US Open in the Men's Singles event. Official results will be verified through the US Open's official website and reputable sports news outlets.
Background
The 2025 US Open is scheduled from August 24 to September 7, marking the first time the tournament will span 15 days, starting on a Sunday. This expansion allows the first round to be played over three days, potentially affecting player scheduling and recovery times. (reuters.com)
As of July 2025, the ATP rankings are as follows:
Jannik Sinner (Italy) – 12,030 points
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain) – 8,600 points
Alexander Zverev (Germany)
Taylor Fritz (United States)
Jack Draper (Great Britain)
Novak Djokovic (Serbia)
Lorenzo Musetti (Italy)
Holger Rune (Denmark)
Ben Shelton (United States)
Andrey Rublev (Russia)
(as.com)
Notably, Jannik Sinner recently secured his position as world No. 1 after winning Wimbledon 2025 against Carlos Alcaraz. (as.com)
Considerations
The expanded 15-day format of the 2025 US Open may influence player performance due to altered scheduling and potential changes in recovery periods. Additionally, the proximity of the US Open to other major tournaments, such as the Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati, could impact player participation and form leading into the Grand Slam. (as.com)
Only the top seeds have been added, considering that only 4 players will make the semifinals. If anyone would like to request more players to be added, please do so by pinging me in the comments.
Update 2025-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Added an Other option covering all players seeded after 20 (seeds 21+) and all qualifying players.
If any player in Other reaches the semifinals, the Other option resolves to 100%, regardless of whether 1–4 such players do.
This is a manually added Other for a Sets market; the default auto-Other behavior does not apply.
1,000
3.00@traders I have just added an Other option that includes all players seeded after 20 (Starting with the 21st seed Nick Kyrgios who replaces Grigor Dimitrov, as well as Qualifying players).The "Other" option that usually includes all future added options doesn't work in Manifold Sets, only Manifold multiple choice, this is just a manually added Other.
If one or more players that fall into the "Other" category make the semifinals, the Other option will resolve to 100% regardless if 1, 2, 3, or 4 "Other" players make the semifinals.