At least 720 strikeouts (how many Daisuke Matsuzaka got)

At least 934 strikeouts (how many Hyun Jin Ryu got)

At least 1173 strikeouts (how many Mariano Rivera got)

At least 1715 strikeouts (how many Chan Ho Park got)

At least 1918 strikeouts (how many Hideo Nomo got)

At least 2074 strikeouts (how many Fernando Valenzuela got)

At least 2245 strikeouts (how many Tommy John got)

At least 2535 strikeouts (how many Bartolo Colon got)

At least 2803 strikeouts (how many Cy Young got)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml

Does not include postseason strikeouts, or strikeouts in spring training, etc.

Only includes strikeouts as a pitcher (getting struck out when hitting does not count).

https://manifold.markets/topic/shohei-ohtani

This question is not about the IIHF World championships. It pertains to the potential 

 tournament organized by the NHL. Other option is simply there in case the tournament would be extended beyond 4 teams. 

🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili v. 🇰🇿 M. Kukushkin [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 H. Mayot v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci v. 🇫🇷 L. Pouille [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic v. 🇧🇪 D. Goffin (6) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 A. Mannarino v. 🇫🇷 R. Gasquet [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇳🇱 J. De Jong v. 🇫🇷 Q. Halys (WC) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇺🇸 C. Eubanks [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (4) v. 🇩🇪 D. Koepfer [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇨🇳 B. Yunchaokete (8) v. 🇫🇷 C. Lestienne [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Cazaux v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili (Q) v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech (7) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (5) v. 🇫🇷 R. Gasquet [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇳🇱 J. de Jong v. 🇮🇹 F. Cobolli (3) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇨🇳 Y. Bu (8) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik (4) v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (5) v. 🇳🇱 J. de Jong [Montpellier ATP 250 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (1) v. 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Semifinals]

🇳🇱 J. de Jong v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 L. Sonego v. 🇩🇰 H. Rune (5) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇨🇳 Z. Zhang [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇨🇿 J. Lehecka v. 🇦🇺 A. Popyrin [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 F. Cobolli v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic v. 🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇰🇿 A. Bublik v. 🇨🇿 J. Mensik [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇧🇪 D. Goffin v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (2) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (Q) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 - Final]

🇺🇸 T. Fritz (1) v. 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇷🇸 M. Kecmanovic v. 🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇯🇵 K. Nishikori v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 J. Brooksby [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 R. Opelka v. 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇬🇧 C. Norrie v. 🇺🇸 A. Michelsen (7) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇺🇸 C. Eubanks (Q) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇦🇺 A. Vukic v. 🇺🇸 B. Shelton (4) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (5) v. 🇯🇵 T. Daniel [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇮🇹 A. Vavassori (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 P. Martinez v. 🇩🇰 H. Rune (5) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇭🇺 F. Marozsan [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇨🇿 J. Lehecka v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Fils (7) v. 🇩🇪 D. Altmaier [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇨🇿 J. Mensik v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (2) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 T. Fritz (1) v. 🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇺 R. Hijikata v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 E. Quinn (Q) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 R. Opelka v. 🇬🇧 C. Norrie [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇺🇸 B. Shelton (4) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (5) v. 🇯🇵 Y. Nishioka [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇺🇸 M. Mmoh (Q) v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (4) v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇩🇪 D. Altmaier (LL) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇪🇸 P. Martinez [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇨🇿 T. Machac (6) [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) v. 🇺🇸 R. Opelka [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi (8) v. 🇪🇸 J. Munar [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇯🇵 Y. Nishioka v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz (8) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) v. 🇮🇹 M. Bellucci (Q) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇺🇸 T. Paul (3) [Dallas ATP 500 - Semifinals]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (3) [Rotterdam ATP 500 - Final]

🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov v. 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (2) [Dallas ATP 500 - Final]

🇩🇪 J. Struff v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (3) v. 🇮🇹 M. Berrettini [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (6) v. 🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic (SE) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇫🇷 Q. Halys (Q) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇧🇪 Z. Bergs v. 🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 K. Khachanov v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) v. 🇰🇿 A. Bublik [Doha ATP 250 - Round 1]

🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp (Q) v. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (2) [Doha ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) v. 🇮🇹 L. Nardi (Q) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇭🇺 F. Marozsan v. 🇨🇿 J. Lehecka [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇷 J. Fonseca (SE) v. 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (1) v. 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 1]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini v. 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇺 C. O'Connell (Q) v. 🇬🇧 J. Draper (8) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇪 Z. Bergs v. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) v. 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇩🇪 A. Zverev (1) v. 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 F. Comesana v. 🇨🇱 N. Jarry (6) [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo (4) v. 🇮🇹 L. Darderi [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇫🇷 A. Muller v. 🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry (8) [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 S. Baez (5) v. 🇦🇷 M. Navone [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇧🇷 T. Monteiro v. 🇹🇼 C. Tseng [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇦🇷 C. Ugo Carabelli v. 🇧🇦 D. Dzumhur [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 J. Munar v. 🇵🇹 J. Faria [Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 - Round 2]

🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic (SE) v. 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime [Doha ATP 250 - Round 2]

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs. 🇨🇿 J. Lehecka [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇮🇹 M. Berrettini vs. 🇬🇧 J. Draper (8) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime vs. 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (4) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

🇷🇺 A. Rublev (5) vs. 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (2) [Doha ATP 500 - Quarterfinals]

Predict the outcome of men's tennis match play at events throughout the 2025 ATP season. 

 advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will only resolve N/A if for some reason the match is cancelled and neither player advances (or if I screw up when listing out the match ups). Seeded players are listed with their seed.

Will resolve YES if Alcaraz, seeded first, advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Nardi advances instead.

In the case of a match being suspended due to weather or other circumstances but completed later, the market will remain open until completion.

Resolves to the winning team. The game between San Antonio Spurs (home) and Phoenix Suns (away) is scheduled for 2025-02-21 at 02:30:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

OpenAI recently introduced a $200/month ChatGPT Pro subscription tier, which includes advanced features like research and operator. 

This market will resolve YES if I am able to generate at least $200 in additional income that can be directly attributed to using the ChatGPT Pro subscription features within the first month of subscription. This includes:

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office 

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities 

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA 

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives 

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

 = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does

 = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.

Must be publically released for the first time between February 1st 00:00am PST and February 28th 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.

For answers where no specific model type is specified alongside the company, then any type of generative AI model will cause it to resolve yes.

refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. GPT 5), o3, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.

 refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.

refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o. 

refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a model for public use before March

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

Resolution Criteria: Gold Missing from Fort Knox?

 if it is confirmed that the U.S. Bullion Depository at 

Fort Knox holds less than 147,300,000 troy ounces of gold

February 17, 2025, and June 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT

. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 

: According to the U.S. Government, Fort Knox holds 

 if official U.S. government data confirms that Fort Knox’s gold reserves fall 

• If an audit confirms that there is no gold missing or that 

**Market will resolve to N/A if no audit occurs  by markets close date.

 or other relevant agencies. Reports from credible financial or governmental publications may also be considered.

Trade on politics & more