Ravens beat Dolphins (10/30) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Panthers beat Packers (11/02) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Broncos beat Texans (11/02) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Falcons beat Patriots (11/02) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Colts beat Steelers (11/02) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Chargers beat Titans (11/02) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Jaguars beat Raiders (11/02) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Seahawks beat Commanders (11/02) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Cardinals beat Cowboys (11/03) 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Final score from any game contains two pentagonal numbers [0,1, 5, 12, 22, 35, 51,...]

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

This market will resolve to the winner of the 2025 League of Legends World Championship, to be held in Fall 2025.  The final will be played in Chengdu, China.

Options will be added as teams qualify for the tournament, and the market will be resolved the day after the final. 

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Leeds United (Sat Nov 01, 15:00)

Crystal Palace beat Brentford (Sat Nov 01, 15:00)

Fulham beat Wolverhampton Wanderers (Sat Nov 01, 15:00)

Nottingham Forest beat Manchester United (Sat Nov 01, 15:00)

Tottenham Hotspur beat Chelsea (Sat Nov 01, 17:30)

Liverpool beat Aston Villa (Sat Nov 01, 20:00)

West Ham United beat Newcastle United (Sun Nov 02, 14:00)

Manchester City beat AFC Bournemouth (Sun Nov 02, 16:30)

Sunderland beat Everton (Mon Nov 03, 20:00)

 (listed first) beats the away team in regulation+stoppage. 

 if draw or away win. Abandoned/postponed = 

T1 just won the 2024 World Championship in League of Legends.

This will resolve YES if T1 win Worlds in 2025 and resolve NO if they lose or do not qualify.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly unveils a working flying vehicle before 23:59 PST on December 31, 2025.

If these conditions are not met by 23:59 PST on December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to “No”.

Official Tesla communications (press releases, events, website, or filings). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alpha Arena, six autonomous AI models, each trading $10,000 in real money on Hyperliquid.

Track and verify all wallets on-chain via

https://x.com/jay_azhang/status/1979602688439386432?s=46

https://x.com/jay_azhang/status/1978644769732509882?s=46

Season 1 will run until November 3rd, 2025 at 5 p.m. EST - winner declared then 

This resolves YES if an AI is able to prove that there are infinitely many prime numbers by the close date.

The AI has to operate without human-generated training data. This is somewhat subjective, but is intended in the spirit of the difference between AlphaGo and AlphaZero - the AI can be taught the rules of the theorem-proving game, but has to come up with strategies on its own. In particular, it should not be considered acceptable for inputs to the AI algorithm at any stage to include datasets of previously-formalized theorems (many such datasets include this theorem anyway). It will be acceptable, however, to provide the AI with formal definitions of the natural numbers, primality, and the statement it's trying to prove (rather than having the AI creatively generate the theorem itself, for example).

Many theorem provers, rather than introducing the concept of sets and infinity, formalize this theorem as "for any natural number N, there exists a prime p greater than N". This is acceptable for the purpose of this market.

Will an AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?

 → Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-government-young-engineers/

Akash Bobba, Edward Coristine, Luke Farritor, Gautier Cole Killian, Gavin Kliger, and Ethan Shaotran

Most valuable by either public market cap or private valuation

If there are any spinoffs after this question was created, I will count the combined value including the spinoff companies

Post suggestions for companies to add in the comments

https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-openai-anthropic-or-google-dee-z5xkbux22u

, except only for OpenAI. I'll defer to Jacob's resolution of his own market.

For convenience, below is the description of that other market as of this market's creation date.

Model weights, architecture details, private training data, training algorithms,... all count. The leak must be reported on by multiple news sources.

I must believe with >50% credence that the leak was worth $5 million or more. I will not predict on this market. To estimate the leak's value I would take into account:

A partial list of IP which would qualify: Model weights Architecture details Private training data Training methodologies and algorithms Optimization techniques Novel loss functions Hyperparameter configurations Data preprocessing techniques Model distillation methods Customized evaluation metrics Proprietary scaling laws Novel fine-tuning approaches Specialized hardware designs for AI Proprietary AI safety measures

Intentional leaks by employees for safety reasons e.g. "employee reveals that no safety testing was done on model X" does not qualify. If the relevant IP was shared by OAI/Anthropic/GDM to a 3rd party (regulator, customer etc.) and stolen from 3rd party servers, then this does 

 count. Gradual rumor-like diffusion of information about model architectural details does not count: only IP confirmed to have been leaked in a single incident counts. Minor leakage e.g. conversation titles between users in ChatGPT's web UI do not count, this would not have sufficient economic value. If company slack (or similar platform) are compromised including all DMs then this will resolve positively. If only company-wide messages are compromised i.e. messages which could be seen by most employees then I will 

67% chance. Model weights, architecture details, private training data, training algorithms,... all count. The leak must be reported on by multiple news sources.

I must believe with >50% credence that the leak was worth $5 million or more. I will not predict on this market. To estimate the leak's value I would take into account:

Purchasing value to a competitor: The estimated amount a competitor would be willing to pay for the stolen IP if it were legally for sale.

Reduction in costs: The estimated savings in research and development costs or training run costs.

Impact on market position: Company valuation, revenue, etc.

Expert consensus.

A partial list of IP which would qualify: Model weights Architecture details Private training data Training methodologies and algorithms Optimization techniques Novel loss functions Hyperparameter configurations Data preprocessing techniques Model distillation methods Customized evaluation metrics Proprietary scaling laws Novel fine-tuning approaches Specialized hardware designs for AI Proprietary AI safety measures

Intentional leaks by employees for safety reasons e.g. "employee reveals that no safety testing was done on model X" does not qualify. If the relevant IP was shared by OAI/Anthropic/GDM to a 3rd party (regulator, customer etc.) and stolen from 3rd party servers, then this does not count. Gradual rumor-like diffusion of information about model architectural details does not count: only IP confirmed to have been leaked in a single incident counts. Minor leakage e.g. conversation titles between users in ChatGPT's web UI do not count, this would not have sufficient economic value. If company slack (or similar platform) are compromised including all DMs then this will resolve positively. If only company-wide messages are compromised i.e. messages which could be seen by most employees then I will not count such a breach.

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/RobertWiblin/will-openai-anthropic-or-deepmind-s

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Resolves true if the US conducts kinetic strikes on Venezuelan government property within the next 48 hours. False otherwise. Primary sources for this information will be mainstream news reporting.

Note: This market will not resolve before 11/9.

Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released

, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market. 

For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Virginia_gubernatorial_election

Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman, re-resolves if the projection is wrong.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

we= all of us, only counts when the last person on food stamps gets they noms

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

, and is eligible to run again in 2025, but appears likely to face 

This question resolves YES to the named individual who wins NYC's mayoral election in 2025, and NO to everyone else.

Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?

In my relationships survey (n=57k), i ask

duestion: Do you practice a traditional religion? 

tip: Such as Christianity, Judaism, Islam, etc., and 

"On average, over the last six months, about how often do you and your partner have sex?"

The question is: Among people who report being in relationships 5 years or more, which group will have higher sex frequency: people who said "no" to the religion question, or people who said "Yes" or "Devoutly/heavily"?

Idk exactly the threshold I'd use to say it's 'equal', and I don't feel like figuring out an exact number to give right now. My usual threshold for correlations being worth reporting is r=.12 (tho i might not use this to measure the relationship idk).

I haven't looked at the results yet and don't know the answer myself. I might bet in this market but will stop betting once I look at the results.

I will do basic controls for stuff like age, gender, and whether or not people have kids. If there's any other very basic, obvious stuff to control for I haven't thought of, then I will include that too. 

Redistricts // <20 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // >35 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // <20 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles

Does Not Redistrict // >35 Republicans over three cycles

For context, there are currently 9 Republicans, so if this holds constant, there will be 27 over the course of the next three elections.

Trade on politics & more