Chicago Bears beat Detroit Lions (11/28) 12:30 PM (FOX)

New York Giants beat Dallas Cowboys (11/28) 4:30 PM (CBS)

Miami Dolphins beat Green Bay Packers (11/28) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Las Vegas Raiders beat Kansas City Chiefs (11/29) 3:00 PM (Prime Video)

Houston Texans beat Jacksonville Jaguars (12/01) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Indianapolis Colts beat New England Patriots (12/01) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Atlanta Falcons (12/01) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Seattle Seahawks beat New York Jets (12/01) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Tennessee Titans beat Washington Commanders (12/01) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals (12/01) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Minnesota Vikings (12/01) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Rams beat New Orleans Saints (12/01) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers (12/01) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Philadelphia Eagles beat Baltimore Ravens (12/01) 4:25 PM (FOX)

San Francisco 49ers beat Buffalo Bills (12/01) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Cleveland Browns beat Denver Broncos (12/02) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

 AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets put on IR the week after the game

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Any player throws for more than 325 yards and loses

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

Any 400 yard passer (https://tinyurl.com/400Yarder)

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

MVP Odds Favorite Changes By 11/27 (Currently: Josh Allen)

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

Any of 6 Super Bowl Favorites Change by 11/27 (Currently: TBD 11/20)

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Team change in top 6 super bowl favorites by 11/27 (Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Steelers)

Add your own props related to Week Twelve (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Twelve finishes, but not later than that.

 Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets

Liverpool is scheduled to play Manchester City at home on December 1st. Resolves YES if Liverpool wins the match, NO if it's a draw or Manchester City wins.

This market is about the Liverpool vs. Man City Premier League match at Liverpool, not any other match between these teams.

If the match is postponed, this market's close date will be extended as needed.

12/01 20:20 ET 49ers: Will Brock Purdy (shoulder) play?

12/01 13:00 ET Commanders: Will Austin Ekeler (concussion) play?

11/28 12:30 ET Lions: Will David Montgomery (shoulder) play?

12/02 20:15 ET Browns: Will Cedric Tillman (concussion) play?

12/01 13:00 ET Jaguars: Will Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) play?

11/28 16:30 ET Giants: Will Tommy DeVito (forearm) play?

11/28 12:30 ET Lions: Will Amon-Ra St Brown (knee) play?

11/29 15:00 ET Raiders: Will Alexander Mattison (ankle) play?

If the player records at least 1 snap it will resolve YES.

Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Any player throws for more than 330 yards and loses

 Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

MVP Odds Favorite Changes By 12/4 (Currently: Josh Allen)

Team change in top 6 super bowl favorites by 12/4 (Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Packers)

Add your own props related to Week Thirteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Thirteen finishes, but not later than that.

Resolves YES if there are four or more decisive (non-drawn) games in the classical (not including tiebreaks) portion of the World Chess Championship (

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

), or NO if there are three or less. Also resolves NO if a new world chess championship does not start before 2025. (i.e. if the existing match is cancelled.)

Decisive game count for previous recent WCCs:

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected, OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2, and 3. I 

wonder which company will be #1 at the end of 2024. 

Screenshot of the rankings table taken on the 13th of December: 

 if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.

This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.

Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.

((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.)

All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For  questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.

The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.

 as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.

This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)

The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.

Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence. 

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp) 

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term) 

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot 

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position 

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out 

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month 

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program 

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

A measurable decrease in chronic disease 

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate 

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028 

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader 

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Will Trump not be acting president before his term is over, for any reason?

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives 

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.

Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. 

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. 

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. 

Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk? 

This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.

As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. 

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. 

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.

Will North Korea provide troops to help Russia with their battle against Ukraine? With least one contingent of over 100 troops, where they are physically within the borders of Ukraine's map before the February 2022 invasion.

Trade on politics & more