Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
Basic
5
Ṁ432028
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Between now (2023-01-09) and the end of 2027-12-31, will there be at least one fatal air transportation occurrence involving a Canadian-registered Commercial Airliner (CARs 705)? I will resolve this according to data from The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB).
In the last ten years only one such fatality has occurred, which was in 2017. Source: http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/aviation/2021/ssea-ssao-2021.html See "Table 4. Persons fatally injured in air transportation accidents".
As I understand it, the "Airliner (CARs 705)" category comprises all commercial flights with 19 or more people on board.
I will participate in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will there be a second civil aviation airport collision with fatalities in 2024?
18% chance
Will another Boeing 737 Max crash during flight before the end of 2028?
35% chance
Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
26% chance
Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
44% chance
Will Canada bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
63% chance
On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
Will Canada bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
60% chance
Will Boeing announce a new 797 airliner before the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will there be a fatality of any kind attributed, at least in part, to aircraft controller error before 2025.
8% chance