Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
Basic
4
Ṁ144Dec 31
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For reference, the most lethal aviation accident of 2023 happened January 15 and left 72 dead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
The market has yet to resolve. However, there was an incident, but that wasn't really an accident, or there is just not enough concise information - What do you think?
2024 Korochansky Ilyushin Il-76 crash
Occupants: 74 (5 identified)
Fatalities: 74 (5 identified)
Survivors: 0
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
22% chance
Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
57% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
Will there be a plane crash with ≥100 victims in Russia in 2025?
14% chance
How many Americans will die as a result of commercial air travel accidents in 2025?
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
50% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
59% chance
Will another Boeing 737 Max crash during flight before the end of 2028?
46% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?
78% chance