A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
Basic
1
Ṁ50Dec 31
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
10% chance
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
26% chance
By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
62% chance
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
28% chance
Will model weights obtaining >90% on the Winogrande benchmark become publicly available in 2024?
35% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
54% chance
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
60% chance
Will OpenAI Release a Model Capable of Reliably performing Gradeschool Math from Reasoning by Jan 1, 2025?
77% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
57% chance
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
22% chance