Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?
Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?
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Resolves YES if the chess prodigy Faustino Oro becomes world chess champion by 2040, and NO otherwise.
From Wikipedia:
Faustino Oro (born October 14, 2013) is an Argentine chess player. In 2024, he defeated Magnus Carlsen in a bullet chess game. In 2023, when he was nine, he received a rating of 2300 (classical), becoming the youngest chess player to have done so. He has been dubbed the "Messi of chess". He is also the youngest player to attain a norm for the IM title.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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