Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator John Fetterman officially changes his party affiliation from the Democratic Party to any other party or to Independent before the conclusion of the 2028 United States presidential election. The change must be publicly announced and reflected in official records, such as the U.S. Senate's party affiliation listings. If no such change occurs by the date of the 2028 election, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Senator John Fetterman, representing Pennsylvania, has been a member of the Democratic Party throughout his political career. In early 2025, speculation arose regarding a potential party switch due to his collaborations with Republican figures and support for certain policies aligned with the GOP. However, Fetterman has publicly dismissed these rumors, stating, "It's not going to happen... I would make a pretty bad Republican." (thehill.com) He has also emphasized his commitment to the Democratic Party, noting that while his political positions have evolved, he remains aligned with the party's core values. (newsweek.com)

Considerations

While Fetterman has engaged in bipartisan efforts and expressed views that occasionally diverge from the Democratic mainstream, he has consistently reaffirmed his allegiance to the Democratic Party. Traders should consider both his public statements and any future political developments when making predictions in this market.