[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
Plus
2
Ṁ2032030
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure that causes loss of electricity for at least 10,000 people for at least 1 day. The question resolves as No otherwise.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
22% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
10% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
42% chance
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?
19% chance
[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
13% chance
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
42% chance