Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?
Will the site (once) called Twitter still be functioning when Elon dies?
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At the time of Elon’s death, will the website/app formerly known as Twitter (currently called X, probably to be called something else) still be functioning at the time of Elon’s death?
Resolves NO if the website goes down for at least 1 month, while Elon is alive. Down will be determined as at least 2 out of the following being true for the month:
No new people can join the site (true of the average person).
The average person is unable to post new content to their account.
There is no functioning home page or timeline.
The average person is unable to see posts.
See my other Elon markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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