Will the US’s public debt exceed 125% of its GDP by Q4 2025?
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Background. According to FRED, the US's public debt was around 120.7% of its GDP in Q3 2024.
Resolution criteria.
This market resolves YES if FRED reports that that the US's Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product exceeds 125.00000% in Q4 2025. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
Note that this measure includes only federal debt, not state or local debt. For more information on the series, see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
The market will resolve once the FRED has posted the value for Q4 2025. In the extremely unlikely event that FRED has not posted this value by the market's resolution, the market will resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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