Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Basic
5
Ṁ3212030
3%
Song, T., Jia, Y., Yu, G. et al. Unconventional superconducting quantum criticality in monolayer WTe2. Nat. Phys. (2024)
2%
Amor, C., Fernández-Maestre, I., Chowdhury, S. et al. Prophylactic and long-lasting efficacy of senolytic CAR T cells against age-related metabolic dysfunction. Nat Aging (2024)
1.9%
Wang, J., Gangavarapu, T., Yan, J. et al. MambaByte: Token-free Selective State Space Model. arXiv:2401.13660 (2024)
6%
Grau-Moya, J., Genewein, T., Hutter, M. et al. Learning Universal Predictors. arXiv:2401.14953 (2024)
3%
Wang, L., Zhao, J., Du, Y. et al. PoCo: Policy Composition from and for Heterogeneous Robot Learning. arXiv:2402.02511 (2024)
6%
Xu, R., Sun, Y., Chen, C. et al. Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model. arXiv:2403.15025 (2024)
78%
Resolution: In January 2030, after this market is closed, Manifold will be polled with the top 5 answers from this market. When the poll closes one week later, this market will resolve to the winner of that poll.
If one of the top 5 answers to this market is not an actual paper first published in 2024 it will be skipped and the next paper ranking paper will be included in the poll instead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold consider the same paper to be the most important paper published in 2024 when polled in 2025 and 2030?
24% chance
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
75% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
15% chance
Which of these Newspapers will publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024 end?
What decade will be considered the decade of the most rapid technological progress in 2040 by Manifold?
What will be the 2024 Manifold Market of the Year?
Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)
67% chance
Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024, according to Manifold users?