AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?
4
Ṁ202
2027
20%
chance

This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.

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With the advent of AI most view that cloud spending will increase. However AI might also optimize existing system (including itself) and there is heavy research into reducing the cost (in terms of compute and energy) of existing AI systems. On the other side, even if the spending is reduced it could cause a Jevons Paradox in terms of more compute being used but will that compute be local or cloud-based?


This market will resolve Yes if services like AWS, Azure, GCP, etc start to shrink in terms of revenue/net sales according to sources. Specifically two or more of the services have to collectively be shrinking for three quarters in a row. This is a imperfect measure because a market down turn could also trigger this event but will be used for this market in any case.

This market will resolve No if services like AWS, Azure, GCP, etc continue to collectively grow or even stay at the same level of spending according to sources.

The key cloud cloud measures will be AWS, Azure, GCP quarterly earnings reports. I might add Cloudflare or other cloud providers later.

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