Will someone erect a giant public STATUE of EITHER Jose Luis Ricon or Alexey Guzey by 2040?
Will someone erect a giant public STATUE of EITHER Jose Luis Ricon or Alexey Guzey by 2040?
Basic
2
Ṁ252040
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Jose Luis Ricon or Alexey Guzey become Bodhisattva by EOY 2032?
31% chance
Will there be a new Mt. Rushmore w/the faces of Jose Luis Ricon (JLR), Alexey Guzey, Adam Marblestone,and Isaak Freeman?
10% chance
Will someone spraypaint "WE LOVE JOSE LUIS RICON" graffiti on SF by EOY2040?
50% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, or Qiaochu Yuan make it into the guinness book of world records for *anything*by2060
50% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon have more followers on Twitter than Alexey Guzey in 2027?
44% chance
Will the "Colossus to Prometheus" statue be built somewhere in the San Francisco Bay before 2050?
13% chance
Will there be a new mt. Rushmore marked with faces of Jose Luis ricon, Alexey guzey, basedbeffjezos, and qiaochu yuan
9% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon have more descendants (children+grandchildren+great grandkids) than Alexey Guzey by 2060?
50% chance
Will Jose Ricon have a personal army/cult by 2035
10% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a DOG by 2040?
41% chance