Will Bangladesh hold new general elections in the next 6 months?
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Ṁ3170Feb 5
10%
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Resolves YES if general elections are held in Bangladesh between 5 Aug 2024 and 5 Feb 2025 inclusive. Resolves NO otherwise.
An announcement is not sufficient, voting must actually happen within this window for a positive resolution.
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August 19:
"We will hold a free, fair participatory election as soon as we can complete our mandate to carry out vital reforms in our election commission, judiciary, civil administration, security forces and media," [Yunus] told diplomats
I think there should be >3% chance that this ends without elections OR civil war.
https://manifold.markets/programjames/will-the-ongoing-civil-unrest-in-ba?r=cHJvZ3JhbWphbWVz
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