Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena? | Manifold

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

6

Ṁ175

2027

67%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves when Lmsys releases the arena score of the largest model in the Llama 5 family.

Its score will be compared to the highest rated GPT 4o model on the leaderboard at the time Llama 5's score is published. This includes models such as chatgpt-4o-latest-20250326.

If their scores are within Lmarena's 95% CI, this market resolves to 'no.'

If Meta does not release a Llama 5, this will resolve as N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#GPT-5 Speculation

#Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

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Related questions

Will GPT-5 exceed 70% on WebArena?

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?

Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena?

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

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