By what year will the US implement a UBI?
By what year will the US implement a UBI?
Basic
11
Ṁ4352051
62%
Later/Never
38%
2050
37%
2040
34%
2035
33%
2034
27%
2033
25%
2032
25%
2031
18%
2030
10%
2029
10%
2028
9%
2027
9%
2026
1.8%
2025
Resolves yes if a measure is implemented by the government to guarantee income at regular intervals indefinitely to every US citizen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
32% chance
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2030?
29% chance
Will any state in the USA pass UBI of at least $2000 per year to all citizens by the end of 2028?
17% chance
Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
68% chance
Which USA state will be the first to pass UBI of at least $2000/yr for all citizens?
Will universal basic income be introduced in the U.S. by 2030?
20% chance
Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?
32% chance
Will any country implement a universal basic income by 2026?
27% chance
Will any OECD country effectively introduce a form of UBI before 2033?
69% chance
Will European Union introduce UBI (Universal basic income) by the end of 2030?
8% chance